Apa Itu Futurology?

Futurology (may also be referred as futures studies) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of history.

Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.

Unlike science where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology studies a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared to natural science or even social science like sociology, economics, and political science

Futurology

Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.^[1]

Contents 1 Overview 2 Probability and predictability 3 Methodologies 3.1 Futures techniques 3.2 Shaping alternative futures 3.3 Weak signals, the future sign and wild cards 3.4 Near-term predictions 3.5 Trend analysis and forecasting 3.5.1 Mega-trends 3.6 Potential trends 3.6.1 Branching trends 3.6.2 Life-cycle of a trend 3.7 Other suggestions for thinking about the future 4 History 4.1 Evolving the field - Programs in Futures Studies(by region) 4.1.1 North America 5 Education 6 Futurists 7 Application of foresight to specific fields 7.1 Practical foresight 7.2 Fashion and design 8 Research centers 9 Futurists and foresight thought leaders 10 Books 10.1 Periodicals and Monographs 11 Organizations 12 References 13 See also 14 Further reading 15 External links

External links

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Wikibooks has a book on the topic of Futurology

• Association of Professional Futurists: Professional organization for futurists
• Buckminster Fuller Institute: Organization that investigates breakthrough strategies for achieving sustainable future.
• Club of Amsterdam Think tank involved in publishing about preferred futures
• Cyber-Salon Forum DiscussionApplied Foresight Network Forum
• The Future Chronicles Futurist commentary on select technologies and trends since 1996
• Future Converged Provides predictions on the future of technology with emphasis on how these technologies relate to each other
• Futures Studies (ASF list): Global Graduate Programs and Resources
• Futurist (ASF definition): Twelve developmental types of futures thinking
• International Futures (IFs): Futures model forecasting over 1,000 variables.
• Global Futurists Podcast series examines topics about the future.
• Principia Cybernetica: Links on future development
• World Future Society: Non-profit organization for those interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future
• Metafuture.orgFocuses on alternative civilizational futures, futures of X case studies and discussions on epistemology and methodology.
• Wikia has a wiki on this subject at The Future Wikia
• Egypt Future Studies Center: Egypt Future Studies Center
• http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw Journal of Futures Studies at Tamkang University, Taiwan
• Future News Network Provides a look at our knowable future

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Categories: Anticipatory thinking | Environmental economics | Futurology | Interdisciplinary fields | Prediction | Technology forecasting

Futurology

FURTHER READING

• Bindé, J. (2001). Keys to the 21st century. New York: Berghahn Books.
• Rescher, Nicholas (1998). Predicting the future. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.
• Welfare, S. (1989). New connexions. Harmondsworth: Penguin ELT.
• Shakhnazarov, G. K. (1982). Futurology fiasco: a critical study of non-Marxist concepts of how society develops. Moscow: Progress Publishers.
• Thompson, A. E. (1979). Understanding futurology: an introduction to futures study. Newton Abbot [Eng.]: David & Charles.
• Ferkiss, V. C. (1977). Futurology: promise, performance, prospects. A Sage policy paper. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
• Hostrop, R. W. (1973). Foundations of futurology in education. [Homewood, Ill: ETC Publications].
• Flechtheim, O. K. (1966). History and futurology. Meisenheim am Glan: Hain.
• Cornish, Edward (2004). Futuring: The exploration of the future.Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.
• Dixon, Patrick (1998,2003,2007). Futurewise: Six Faces of Global Change. Profile Books.
• Galtung, Johan and Inayatullah, Sohail. (1997). Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Perspectives on individual, social and civilizational change. Westport, Ct, Praeger.
• Godet, Michel (2004). Creating Futures Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. Economica, 2001.
• Gordon, Adam (2009). "Future Savvy," American Management Association Press, New York
• History & Mathematics: Analyzing and Modeling Global Development. Edited by Leonid Grinin, Victor C. de Munck, andAndrey Korotayev. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. P.10-38. ISBN 9785484010011.
• Inayatullah, Sohail (2007). Questioning the future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation. Tamsui, Tamkang University. Third Edition.
• de Jouvenel, Bertrand (1967). The Art of Conjecture. (New York: Basic Books, 1967).
• Lindgren, Mats and Bandhold, Hans (2003). Scenario Planning-the link between future and strategy. Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire and New York.
• Lindgren, Mats et al. (2005). The MeWe Generation. Bookhouse Publishing, Stockholm, Sweden.
• Retzbach, Roman (2005). Future-Dictionary - encyclopedia of the future, New York, USA
• Slaughter, Richard A. (2005). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies Professional Edition CDROM. Foresight International, Indooroopilly, Australia
• Woodgate, Derek with Pethrick, Wayne R. (2004). Future Frequencies. Fringecore, Austin, Texas, USA
• Dr. Mike Goldsmith, The Knowledge, Fantastic Future
• Bishop, Peter and Hines, Andy. (2006). Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Social Technologies, Washington, DC.

Futurology

SEE ALSO

Main lists: List of futurology topics and List of basic futurology topics

11th millennium and beyond 15 Global Challenges Anarcho-primitivism Agentization Applied Foresight Network Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy Clarke's three laws Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies CPFR Emerging technologies Extropy Institute Forecasting Foresight (future studies) Foresight Exchange

Future energy development Futures techniques Hubbert peak theory Kardashev scale List of futures scholars List of future studies topics Moore's Law Morphological analysis New World Order Omega point Optimism bias Planetary Phase of Civilization Planning Prediction

Prediction market Reference class forecasting Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth State of the Future Strategic foresight Superintelligence Technological singularity Technology Technology forecasting Thought experiment Timeline of the future in forecasts Transhumanism

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Futurology

REFERENCES

1. ^ futurology. Wordnet.princeton.edu.
2. ^ Wells, H.G. (1932) 1987. Wanted: Professors of Foresight! Futures Research Quarterly V3N1 (Spring): p. 89-91.
3. ^ Science Glossary
4. ^ http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossip_K._Flechtheim Ossip K. Flechtheim, The German edition of Wikipedia.
5. ^ A sample presentation on risk management
6. ^ article about the Future sign
7. ^ Link to the tool here
8. ^ Article by Hiltunen describing the differences of weak signals and wild cards
9. ^ Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Volume 1 New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers. ISBN 1-56000-271-9.
10. ^ ^a b Bell, Wendell (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era. New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA: Transaction Publishers.
11. ^ Galtung, Johan and Inayatullah, Sohail (1997). Macrohistory and Macrohistorians. Westport, Ct: Praeger.
12. ^ Khaldun, Ibn (1967), The Muqaddimah, Trans. Franz Rosenthal, ed. N.J. Dawood. Princeton: Princeton University Press
13. ^ Masini, Eleonora (1993). Why Futures Studies?. London, UK: Grey Seal Books.
14. ^ Slaughter, Richard A. (1995). The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London, England: Adamantine Press, Ltd..
15. ^ Sardar, Ziauddin, ed. (1999). Rescuing All Our Futures. Praeger Studies on the 21st Century, Westport, Connecticut, USA.
16. ^ Meadows, Donella H.; D.L. Meadows, J. Randers, and William W. Behrens III (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York, New York, USA: Universe Books.
17. ^ Kuhn, Thomas (1975, c1970). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
18. ^ Masini, Eleonora (1993). Why Futures Studies?. London, UK: Grey Seal Books.
19. ^ Dator, James (2002), Advancing Futures, Westport: Ct, Praeger, 2002
20. ^ Sardar, Ziauddin, ed.,(1999) Rescuing all our futures: the futures of futures studies. Westport, Ct: Praeger
21. ^ Inayatullah, Sohail (2007), Questioning the Future: methods and tools for organizational and societal change. Tamsui: Tamkang University (third edition)
22. ^ Slaughter, Richard (2005). The Knowledge Base of Future Studies.
23. ^ Slaughter, Richard (1997). The Foundations of Futures Studies.
24. ^ Markley, Oliver (1998). This program continues at the University of Houston under the guidance of Dr. Peter Bishop. "Visionary Futures: Guided Imagery in Teaching and Learning about the Future," inAmerican Behavioral Scientist. Sage Publications, New York.
25. ^ Jones, Christopher (Winter 1992). "The Manoa School of Futures Studies". Futures Research Quarterly: 19–25.
26. ^ Slaughter, Richard A. (2004). Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight. London: RoutledgeFalmer.
27. ^ Welcome to the World Futures Studies Federation
28. ^ http://www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html
29. ^ Sohail Inayatullah, ed., The Views of Futurists. Vol 4, The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Brisbane, Foresight International, 2001.
30. ^ http://www.keralauniversity.edu/universitydepartments.htm#ncvzx
31. ^ http://www.budapestfutures.org/jkb/
32. ^ http://www.cnam.fr/lipsor
33. ^ http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html
34. ^ http://www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE
35. ^ http://www.futuribles.fr
36. ^ http://www.subito.as
37. ^ http://zukunftsinstitut.de/about_us.php
38. ^ http://www.progective.com
39. ^ http://www.wfsf.org
40. ^ http://www.izt.de/en/
41. ^ http://www.future-institute.com/2008/
42. ^ Barker
43. ^ "Compressed Data; On a Futurists' Forum, Money Backs Up Predictions," The New York Times, April 1, 2002
44. ^ TAI
45. ^ Cornish
46. ^ Erickson
47. ^ Feather
48. ^ GOUX-BAUDIMENT
49. ^ Harkins
50. ^ Alter our DNA or robots will take over, warns Hawking
51. ^ Our species must move to another planet
52. ^ Metafuture
53. ^ Joseph
54. ^ Lamb
55. ^ Passig
56. ^ Tomsyck
57. ^ Voros
58. ^ ISBN 1591840899 - Joel A. Barker and Scott W. Erickson
59. ^ http://www.managementfirst.com/strategy/journals/foresight.php/
60. ^ http://www.futureorientation.com/
61. ^ http://www.wfs.org/frq.htm
62. ^ http://www.mnfuturists.org
63. ^ http://www.wfs.org/futurist.htm
64. ^ ISBN 0415302692 - Joseph Voros
65. ^ http://www.forecasters.org/ijf/
66. ^ http://www2.tku.edu.tw/~tddx/jfs/
67. ^ http://www.wfsf.org/