Futures techniques
While forecasting -- i.e., attempts to predict future states from current trends -- is a common methodology, professional scenarios often rely on "backcasting" -- i.e., asking what changes in the present would be required to arrive at envisioned alternative future states. For example, the Policy Reformand Eco-Communalism scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Grouprely on the backcasting method. Practitioners of futures studies classify themselves as futurists (or foresight practitioners).
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including:
- Anticipatory thinking protocols:
- Causal layered analysis (CLA)
- Environmental scanning
- Scenario method
- Delphi method
- Future history
- Monitoring
- Backcasting (eco-history)
- Back-view mirror analysis
- Cross-impact analysis
- Futures workshops
- Failure mode and effects analysis
- Futures biographies
- Futures wheel
- Global Prescience
- Relevance tree
- Simulation and modelling
- Social network analysis
- Systems engineering
- Trend analysis
- Morphological analysis
- Technology forecasting
